Analysis of the October Box Sale: Taking Two Steps Back

The first Deoxys Raids may have come and gone, but Niantic surprised us with new box sales. We have no idea what Niantic is up to in regards to these boxes. Maybe Niantic is under Gengar’s HEX. Are they designed to help us get the most out of this event? Let’s analyze each box and see if you are getting the most out of your hard earned PokéCoins.

SpecialGreatUltra
Premium Raid Pass2610
Super Incubator310
Incubator2
Star Piece38
Incense8
Lucky Egg2
Lure Module12
Price4807801480
Box value analysis
Coin Saved per Box (Incubator & Raid Pass)204201520
Coin Saved per Box (Incubator only)-180-180520
Coin Saved per Box230777.52520
Percent Discount (Incubator & Raid Pass)4.00%35.00%50.67%
Percent Discount (Incubator only)-60.00%-30.00%26.00%
Percent Discount32.39%49.92%63.00%
536565204865616465722050696374757265

Before the verdict, I would like to reiterate that I chose to not use the standard price of Lucky Egg, Incense, Lure Module, and Star Piece, since the comparison should be more on the price of buying in bulk. It would be misleading to compare it to the base price which is in principle designed to be more expensive than bulk to encourage consumers to spend more. That being said, I used the bulk price of these items when buying an 8-item bundle.

Quick links to related guides:

Our Verdict

Niantic has made another step back when it comes to savings. Every box is worse than the previous iteration, and everyone should be upset, but on a business standpoint, it makes sense, since this is the time when players will more likely raid to either a) get a Mewtwo with good IVs or b) increase the odds of getting an EX Raid Pass.

Waiting for a better sale in the future might seem like the best option, but given how Niantic is dialing down the savings in each iteration of the sale boxes, some might be inclined to buy now to get the best deal available. Still, if you do wait, Niantic may come around because of the poor performance of the box sales and may dial the saving back up again. There is historical proof that Niantic has done it. During the first anniversay sale, the box sale was universally hated by players. Because of that, the next box sale was one of the best box sales ever, with around 20 Raid Passes in the Ultra Box.

If you still want to buy a box, here are the things you need to consider in each box.

Special Box

This is a solid box for those starting out. While it’s a bit irritating that the Incubators dropped to 2, the inclusion of a Lure Module might be the only saving grace. Other than that, this box should interest you if you intend to spend a lot of coins.

Great Box

At first, I see the inclusion of Lure Modules and Star Pieces and think this should be the better box, but in an overall saving standpoint, it’s bad. Then again, the allure of this box is in the Premium Raid Passes, since the difference between the regular price of 6 Raid Passes and this box is just 180, and you get 3 Super Incubators in return. If you plan on raiding a lot, buying Raid Passes alone is still the best option, but if you are willing to spend an extra 180 for additional items, this box is a great option.

Ultra Box

This box is just bad. Yes, it has the best savings on an overall standpoint, but compared to other Ultra Boxes, this one is the worst since the Special Trade Event Box Sale. The Incense in this box is what’s irritating me the most. While yes, some people like Incense, it should be on the Great Box or Special Box instead. There is a good chunk of the player-base that prefer multiple Lure Modules instead.

If you still need to hatch 7 KM eggs, this should still be a solid box since it’s still 10 Super Incubators. The problem is that most people have either a) already completed the Region Exclusive Pokemon in 7 KM eggs, or b) more inclined to raid because of Mewtwo and Deoxys. Only buy this box if you want the Incubators.

Overall thoughts

If you plan on buying PokéCoins and want to make the most of it, if you plan on raiding more, the Great Box would be a better choice while if you plan on hatching eggs more, the Ultra Box is still a solid option. The Special Box might not look like the best box, but it is a a decent box for those that are starting out and can only afford a few coins.

If you’re a returning player, you can definitely catch up with the help of these boxes, since Pokémon caught from Raids and hatched from eggs tend to have higher IVs. Even if you’re not planning on hatching eggs since you’ve acquired the 4 Region-Exclusive Pokémon or if you’re not planning on raiding since you’ve already gotten tons of Mewtwo during its time as an EX Raid Boss, or have no interest in powering up Deoxys, it’s never a bad thing to stock up on Incubators and Raid Passes, since the release of Generation IV is inevitable, and has been hinted twice already. Those Incubators and Raid Passes may help you on hatching new Baby Pokémon or possibly get a Raid-exclusive Pokémon similar to Mawile and Absol. Generation IV may be next year or before the year ends, but it’s coming for sure.

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